About this chapter
Risk decisions often involve several uncertainties whose relationships matter as much as their individual probabilities. MacKenzie uses influence diagrams to make decisions, uncertain events, and consequences explicit within one representation. The chapter explains the meaning of the different nodes and arcs, works through examples, and discusses construction, probability assessment, common mistakes, and implementation in Netica. Drawing the diagram is part of structuring the problem, not a substitute for the judgments needed to populate it. Readers can use the chapter to examine what is known when a decision is made, how uncertain events are connected, and which outcomes the decision is meant to affect.
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Companion reading noteStructuring a decision under uncertaintyCite this contribution
Cameron A. MacKenzie. (2024). Influence Diagrams for Risk Management in Military and Defense. In Natalie M. Scala & James P. Howard, II (Eds.), Handbook of Military and Defense Operations Research (2nd ed., pp. 311–344). Chapman & Hall/CRC. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781003396307-13
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