Reading note 01 · 4 chapters
From data to a defensible model
Data · Forecasting · Validation
Open the reading noteCompanion notes · Teaching & discussion
A few routes through the chapter topics, with questions to carry into the reading. Start with the problem you want to understand, then return to the authors for the substance.
Original companion material
These reading notes suggest connections between chapter topics. Each sequence connects the scope of particular contributions while keeping their different purposes visible. The notes supplement the chapters rather than replace their arguments. Each note identifies its proposed sequence and offers an original discussion exercise. The chapter pages keep the authorship and edition of each contribution visible, so a reading sequence does not turn several distinct contributions into one anonymous account.
For teaching, ask readers to make a short record of the decision, evidence, assumptions, and remaining uncertainty in each contribution they study. Compare those records before trying to combine the methods. A disagreement about objectives is different from a disagreement about an estimate, and neither becomes clearer by putting both under the heading of uncertainty. The notes below offer several places to begin that conversation.
Reading note 01 · 4 chapters
Data · Forecasting · Validation
Open the reading noteReading note 02 · 4 chapters
Decisions · Uncertainty · Model use
Open the reading noteReading note 03 · 5 chapters
Planning · Assessment · Testing
Open the reading note