About this chapter
Threatcasting begins with a possible future and asks how people might come to experience it. Vanatta and Johnson describe a structured foresight process that combines technical research with social, economic, cultural, and historical perspectives, using a person in a particular setting to make a future scenario concrete. The exercise is not a claim to predict an exact outcome. It provides a way to examine pathways, warning signs, and choices that could affect how a situation develops. Readers interested in long-horizon planning can use the chapter to distinguish the exploration of plausible futures from the estimation of a single forecast.
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Natalie Vanatta; Brian David Johnson. (2024). Threatcasting in a Military Setting. In Natalie M. Scala & James P. Howard, II (Eds.), Handbook of Military and Defense Operations Research (2nd ed., pp. 167–182). Chapman & Hall/CRC. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781003396307-7
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